Fitch Ratings Ўзбекистоннинг рейтинг бўйича прогнозини «Ижобий» даражага оширди ва мамлакатнинг BB-рейтингини тасдиқлади.
Fitch Ratings O’zbekiston uchun ijobiy prognozni e’lon qildi.
Suveren reytingning o’zi «BB» darajasida tasdiqlandi.
Fond bozori uchun ajoyib signal. Fitch tahlilchilarining fikriga ko’ra, o’sishning asosiy omillari quyidagilar:
Muvaffaqiyatli islohotlar: faol xususiylashtirish va
91
Yaqinda Milliy investitsiya jamg’armasidan va xalqaro bozorlardan chiqish.
Kuchli iqtisodiy o’sish: YaIM o’rta muddatli istiqbolda 6,3-6,4% darajasida prognoz qilinmoqda.
Davlat qarzining pastligi: YaIMning 28% gacha pasayishi kutilmoqda («BB» reytingiga ega mamlakat uchun o’rtacha ko’rsatkichdan ikki baravar ko’p).
Kuchli zaxiralar: oltin va valyuta zaxiralari 71 milliard dollargacha o’sadi.
Biroq, Fitch Ratings istiqbol yaxshilangan taqdirda ham kredit reytingining pasayishiga olib kelishi mumkin bo’lgan potentsial xavflarni ta’kidlaydi:
Makroiqtisodiy: tarkibiy islohotlarni to’xtatib qo’yish va iqtisodiy o’sish prognozlarini pasaytirish.
Tashqi moliya: Pul o’tkazmalarining keskin pasayishi yoki pishloq narxining pasayishi (haqiqiy savdo defitsiti) tufayli valyuta zaxiralarining pasayishi.
Davlat moliyalari: Zaif iqtisodiyot, davlat xarajatlarining nazoratsiz o’sishi, narxlarning pasayishi yoki yashirin qarzlarning sotilishi tufayli davlat qarzining sezilarli darajada oshishi yoki byudjetning qisqarishi.
Bu investorlar uchun nimani anglatadi?
Istiqbolni qayta ko’rib chiqish reytingning o’zida tez yaxshilanish sari birinchi qadamdir. Biz uchun bu yangi xalqaro investorlarning oqimi, biznes uchun arzonroq kreditlar va Toshkent fond birjasida bo’lajak TROlar uchun kuchli rag’bat deganidir. Uzoq muddatli bozor o’sishi uchun poydevor yanada mustahkamlanadi!
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